1/9/2024 0 Comments Xlstat spearmanFlood brings extensive damages and disruption in a short span of time in the areas of a river basin threatened by floods, well known as flood areas, and gets more attention worldwide as compared with drought. Climate scientists are using varying spans of time series data to quantify changes in rainfall pattern and trend, which has resulted in flood and drought in different regions of the world. The variations in these climatic elements have put substantial impacts on a hydrological cycle. Globally, the mean annual temperature is rising and has resulted in variations in rainfall distribution, trend, and magnitude. Therefore, this study is useful for proper water resource management to cope up with water scarcity in the future. The area and volume of these glaciers are decreasing due to warming impacts of climate change. The study area is the host of the major glaciers in Pakistan from where the Indus River receives its major tributaries. The results of the midcentury projections depicted an increase in precipitation of about 13%, while future projections for the latter half of the century recorded a decrease in precipitation (about 9%) for both RCPs, which can cause flooding in midcentury and drought in the latter half of the century. The future precipitation projections depicted an increase of 4% for the 21st century as compared with the baseline period in the GB region. The results of MK and SR indicate a significant increasing trend of rainfall in the study area, which is showing the conversion of snowfall to rainfall due to climate warming. Similarly, in 2000–2001 severe drought prevailed in Diamir, Ghanche, and Skardu. From the results, the extreme drought situations were observed in the 12-month SPI series in 1982 in the Diamir, Ghizer, and Gilgit districts, while severe drought in 1982–1983 was observed in Astore, Ghizer, Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, and Skardu. A coupled model intercomparison project–global circulation model (CMIP5–GCMs) was used to project the future precipitation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) for the 21st century using a multimodel ensemble (MME) technique for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) trend tests were applied to calculate the trend of drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to assess the dry and wet conditions during the study period. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) model data were used for the period of 1981 to 2020. This study focused on the trends of rainfall variability and drought monitoring in the northern region of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan).
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |